Market Snapshot: Historical trends and scenario projections for energy use in Canada
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Release date: 2026-09-09
Over the past 20 years, Canada’s economic growth, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have followed different paths—driven by improvements in energy efficiency and a cleaner energy mix. While energy demand remains closely tied to economic activity, and energy-related emissions still account for more than 80% of Canada’s total GHG emissions, the future path depends both on market forces and policy choices. Canada’s Energy Futures 2026 explores scenarios that illustrate how these pathways could unfold over the coming decades.
Historical trends (2005-24)
Between 2005 and 2024, Canada’s economy expanded by 39% (or 1.8% annually)Footnote 1—broadly in line with other advanced economies.Footnote 2 Population increased by 28%, so GDP per capita rose more modestly, by about 8%.Footnote 3 Economic performance reflected global cycles, including the 2009 global financial crisis, oil price volatility, and the COVID-19 shock (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Historical trends for economic activity, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions indicators in Canada (2005-24), index 2005 = 100
Source and Text Alternative
Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2026, National Inventory Report 1990-2023
Text Alternative: This chart shows indexed trends for economic, energy demand, and GHG emissions metrics compared to 2005, the baseline year. Economic activity metrics include real gross domestic product (GDP), population, and real GDP per capita. End-use energy demand includes all energy used across buildings, transportation, and industry, while energy intensity measures energy needed per unit of economic output. GHG emissions include emissions from all economic sectors,Footnote 4 while emissions intensity measures the amount of greenhouse gases emitted per unit of energy used.
Each line shows growth or declines each year compared to 2005, when all values equal 100. For example, a GDP value of 139 in 2024 shows GDP was 39% higher in 2024 compared to 2005. An energy intensity index of 78 in 2024 shows a 22% decline in energy use per unit of economic output compared to 2005.
The lines in the chart show that between 2005-24 Canada’s economy and population expanded by close to 40% and 30% (respectively), while energy demand increased by less than 10% and GHG emissions declined by more than 10%. As such, over the past two decades, Canadians generated more economic output per person (as per rising GDP per capita), used energy more efficiently (as per declining energy intensity), while that energy came from cleaner sources (as per declining emissions intensity). Over the same period, energy end-use rose by only 8% (0.4% annually).Footnote 5 Because the economy and population grew faster than energy demand, Canada used energy more efficiently each year (e.g., as illustrated by declining energy intensity). Most of the increase in energy demand came from industrial activityFootnote 6 (particularly in oil and gas, mining, and agriculture) driven mostly by higher natural gas and electricity use.Footnote 7 (Figure 2, left panel)
Despite modest growth in energy use, Canada’s GHG emissions declined by 12%.Footnote 8 The biggest reductions came from electric utilities (even as total generation levels increased), reflecting policy-driven coal phase-outs. Emissions also declined in energy-intensive manufacturing, while they rose in oil and gas and agriculture as production expanded. (Figure 2, right panel) Overall, declining emissions intensity reflects a shift toward more energy efficient technologies and cleaner energy production and use across the economy.
Figure 2: Net changes for 2005-24 in energy demand by major end-use sector and fuel category in petajoules [PJ] (left panel), and in greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent [Mt of CO2e] (right panel)
Source and Text Alternative
Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2026, National Inventory Report 1990-2023
Text Alternative: The bar chart on the left panel displays the net change in Canada’s end-use energy demand between 2005 and 2024 by major sector—including industry, buildings, and transportation—and by fuel category in petajoules (PJ) of energy. The net change in total energy use during this time was an increase of 834 PJs or 8%. Most of that increase came from the industry sector and in the form of natural gas and electricity, with a sizeable reduction from liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
The bar chart on the right panel displays the net change in Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2005 and 2024 by economic sector—in line with Canada’s National Inventory Report (NIR)—in millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt of CO2e). Heavy industry includes mining plus energy-intensive manufacturing industries. “Others” in the waste and others category includes forestry, construction, and light manufacturing industries. 2024 values are estimates from Canada’s Energy Futures 2026. The net change in GHG emissions during this time was a decline of 94 Mt of CO2e or 12%. Most of that change came from electricity generation.
Future pathways (2024-50)
Energy Futures 2026 explores how Canada’s energy system may evolve. Four scenarios—Current Measures (CM), Lower scenario, Higher scenario, and Canada Net-zero (CNZ)—reflect varying assumptions about economic growth, trade, energy prices, technology development and climate policy ambition. All scenarios project continued economic growth and GHG emission declines, though the scale, pace, and drivers of change differ:
- Current Measures (CM): emissions fall by 16% between 2024-50, even as GDP grows by 50% and energy use rises by 11%. Continued improvements in energy efficiency, increased electrification (e.g., greater adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps), and cleaner electricity drive emissions down.
- Lower and Higher scenarios: relative to CM, differences in energy demand and GHG emissions stem mainly from lower or higher economic activity levels—such as variations in oil and gas prices and production, trade-related growth, and electricity demand from data centers. Energy and emissions intensity in these scenarios improve in line with CM.
- Canada Net-zero (CNZ): emissions decline sharply. Widespread adoption of clean fuels (electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen), highly efficient end-use technologies, and carbon capture and removal technologies accelerate energy efficiency gains, fuel switching, and emissions reductions. While economic growth roughly matches CM, growth leans more on clean energy and emissions reduction and removal solutions, rather than fossil fuel production.
Figure 3: Projection trends for economic activity, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions across four different scenarios for Canada (2024-50), index 2024 = 100
Source and Text Alternative
Source: Canada’s Energy Future 2026
Text Alternative: These line charts show the growth or decline of economic, energy demand, or GHG emissions metrics relative to their 2024 baseline (where all values equal 100) up until 2050 for the four different scenarios from Energy Future 2026—Current Measures, Lower, Higher, and Canada Net-zero. For example, a 2050 value of 150 for GDP in Current Measures means GDP is estimated to be 50% larger in 2050 compared to 2024. An energy use value of 95 in 2050 in Canada Net-Zero means energy needed in 2050 will be 5% lower compared to 2024 levels.
GDP grows in all scenarios – the most in the Higher scenario, at similar rates in Current Measures and Canada Net-zero and the least in the Lower scenario. Energy use increases the most in the Higher scenario, grows less so in Current Measures, stays mostly flat in the Lower scenario and declines slightly in Canada Net-zero. GHG emissions decline in all scenarios – by about 16% by 2050 relative to 2024 levels in Current Measures, being about 9% lower and higher in 2050 relative to Current Measures in the Lower and Higher scenarios, and reaching net-zero in 2050 in the Canada Net-zero scenario
Across scenarios, each end-use sector—buildings, transportation, and industry—shows unique links between economic drivers, energy use, and emissions. Drawing on Canada’s Energy Future 2026 data and consistent with the analysis presented above, future market snapshots will provide supplementary sector-level insights.
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