Market Snapshot: Bioenergy use could double in Canada’s net-zero future

Release date: 2024-02-21

Bioenergy is an important component of Canada’s energy mix, accounting for around 7% of Canada’s end-use^Definition* energy demand in 2020 (or 733 petajoules (PJ), this includes end uses of biofuels, bioelectricity^Definition*, and biohydrogen^Definition*).^Footnote 1 Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) looks at how Canada’s energy system might change from 2023 to 2050 in three different scenarios: Current Measures (CM)^Footnote 2, Global Net-zero (GNZ)^Footnote 3, and Canada Net-zero (CNZ).^Footnote 4 Bioenergy use increases the most in the CNZ scenario, rising to 1,645 PJ by 2050, making up 16% of Canada’s total end-use energy demand. In the GNZ scenario, the bioenergy use increases to 1,497 PJ by 2050, with a percentage bioenergy contribution even higher than CNZ, at 17% in 2050. The percentage contribution is higher in GNZ scenario since the total end-use energy is lower in GNZ compared to CNZ. (Figure 1)

Figure 1: Bioenergy contribution to end-use demand in net-zero scenarios

Bioenergy types in EF2023

EF2023 considers eight end-use bioenergy types, of which six are biofuels as listed below:

• Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)
• Biodiesel^Definition*
• Renewable diesel^Definition*
• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)^Definition*
• Ethanol^Definition*
• Biomass (heating and other uses)^Footnote 5

The other two bioenergy types include, electricity produced from biomass (bioelectricity)^Definition*, and hydrogen produced from biomass (biohydrogen)^Definition*

Resource availability for bioenergy

Feedstocks^Footnote 6 for bioenergy are diverse, with four residual feedstock types:

• crop residue^Footnote 7
• forest residue^Footnote 8
• livestock residue^Footnote 9
• urban wastes^Footnote 10

And two purpose grown or managed feedstock types:

• energy crops^Footnote 11
• forestry^Footnote 12

Because both feedstocks and bioenergy (especially biofuels) are diverse, determining bioenergy supply is complex. CER’s Bioenergy Supply Model (CER-BSM) assesses detailed biomass resource inventories to connect different bioenergy feedstocks with bioenergy types in each EF2023 scenario.

Figure 2: Biomass feedstocks available and used for bioenergy

Figure 2 shows the amounts of feedstock available, and the amount, used from 2020 to 2050. In 2050 in the GNZ scenario, residual feedstock is used about 150% more than in 2020, with 57% of available residual feedstock being converted to bioenergy^Footnote 13. In addition, use of energy crops and forestry for bioenergy increases by around 350% and 200%, respectively, in the GNZ scenario. Higher use of energy crops and forestry results in more land needed for producing bioenergy feedstocks. In the GNZ scenario, agricultural land^Footnote 14 used for energy crops, as a percentage of total agricultural land, is expected to grow from 0.3% in 2020, to around 1.2% in 2050. In addition, the percentage of total wood supply^Definition* directly used for energy increases from 4.3%^Footnote 15 in 2020 to 8.7% in 2050 in the GNZ scenario. Imports of liquid biofuels (biodiesel, ethanol, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) also contribute to satisfy Canadian bioenergy end-use demand. Currently around 50% of the Canadian liquid biofuels are imported^Footnote 16. CER-BSM results show that using domestic feedstocks biofuel import contribution can be reduced to 31% and 21% in GNZ and CNZ scenarios respectively by 2050.To satisfy bioenergy demand by 2050 in a net-zero future, greater use of residual feedstocks, and land for bioenergy feedstock production, are likely required.

Date modified:

2024-02-21